专题：聚焦杰克逊霍尔人人央行年会 好意思联储主席鲍威尔示意行将降息耳光 调教
华尔街见闻
北京本事23日晚10点，好意思联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔人人央行年会上重磅发声。
会议上，鲍威尔开释了迄今为止最为明确的降息信号，他走漏： 政策退换的时机依然到来。降息时机和节拍将取决于后续数据、出息变化和风险均衡。
他以为，面前的政策利率水平为好意思联储提供了足够的空间来移交可能靠近的任何风险，包括劳能源阛阓现象进一步恶化的风险。“通胀的上行风险依然削弱，管事的下行风险则有所加多。好意思联储关注双重职责各自所靠近的风险。”
以下为话语全文（中英对照）：
Four and a half years after COVID-19‘s arrival， the worst of the pandemic-related economic distortions are fading． Inflation has declined significantly． The labor market is no longer overheated， and conditions are now less tight than those that prevailed before the pandemic． Supply constraints have normalized． And the balance of the risks to our two mandates has changed． Our objective has been to restore price stability while maintaining a strong labor market， avoiding the sharp increases in unemployment that characterized earlier disinflationary episodes when inflation expectations were less well anchored． While the task is not complete， we have made a good deal of progress toward that outcome．
在新冠病毒到来四年半后，与疫情联系的最严重的经济诬告正在消退。通货扩展已彰着下落。劳能源阛阓不再过热，现在的现象也不如疫情前那么紧俏。供给限制依然正常化。咱们两项任务的风险均衡依然发生了变化。咱们的指标是规复价钱相识的同期保执矫捷的劳能源阛阓，幸免失业率急剧上升，这是通胀预期莫得充分锚定时遍及会出现的早期去通胀特征。咱们依然朝着这个指标获得了很猛进展。天然任务尚未完成，但咱们依然朝着这一成果获得了很猛进展。
Today， I will begin by addressing the current economic situation and the path ahead for monetary policy． I will then turn to a discussion of economic events since the pandemic arrived， exploring why inflation rose to levels not seen in a generation， and why it has fallen so much while unemployment has remained low．
今天，我将着手究诘现时的经济所在和货币政策的异日旅途。然后，我将转向对疫情以来经济事件的究诘，探讨为什么通货扩展上升到一代东谈主以来的最高水平，以及为什么通胀率下落如斯之多，而失业率却保执在低位。
Near-Term Outlook for Policy 近期政策瞻望
Let‘s begin with the current situation and the near-term outlook for policy．
让咱们从现时的所在和近期政策出息开动。
For much of the past three years， inflation ran well above our 2 percent goal， and labor market conditions were extremely tight． The Federal Open Market Committee‘s （FOMC） primary focus has been on bringing down inflation， and appropriately so． Prior to this episode， most Americans alive today had not experienced the pain of high inflation for a sustained period． Inflation brought substantial hardship， especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food， housing， and transportation． High inflation triggered stress and a sense of unfairness that linger today．
在往时三年的大部分本事里，通胀率远高于咱们 2% 的指标，劳能源阛阓现象极其焦虑。联邦公开阛阓委员会 （FOMC） 的主要要点是裁减通胀率，这是理所天然的。在此之前，面前大多数好意思国东谈主还莫得经历过永恒高通胀的磨折。通胀带来了矫捷的艰难，尤其是对于那些最无力承担食物、住房和交通等基本活命必需品腾贵本钱的东谈主来说。高通胀激励的压力和不公谈感于今仍然存在。
Our restrictive monetary policy helped restore balance between aggregate supply and demand， easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remained well anchored． Inflation is now much closer to our objective， with prices having risen 2.5 percent over the past 12 months （figure 1） ． After a pause earlier this year， progress toward our 2 percent objective has resumed． My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 percent．
咱们的限制性货币政策有助于规复总供需均衡，缓解通胀压力，并确保通胀预期保执致密锚定。通货扩展现在更接近咱们的指标，物价在往时12个月中高涨了2.5%（图1）。继岁首有所凝滞之后，咱们朝着2%的指标又获得了进展。我越来越有信心，通胀率正沿着可执续的谈路回到2%。
Turning to employment， in the years just prior to the pandemic， we saw the significant benefits to society that can come from a long period of strong labor market conditions： low unemployment， high participation， historically low racial employment gaps， and， with inflation low and stable， healthy real wage gains that were increasingly concentrated among those with lower incomes．
谈到管事，在疫情爆发前的几年里，咱们看到了永恒矫捷的劳能源阛阓现象给社会带来的紧要利益：低失业率、高参与率、历史性的低种族管事差距，以及通货扩展率低而相识、现实工资增长健康且越来越聚合在低收入东谈主群中。
Today， the labor market has cooled considerably from its formerly overheated state． The unemployment rate began to rise over a year ago and is now at 4.3 percent—still low by historical standards， but almost a full percentage point above its level in early 2023 （figure 2）． Most of that increase has come over the past six months． So far， rising unemployment has not been the result of elevated layoffs， as is typically the case in an economic downturn． Rather， the increase mainly reflects a substantial increase in the supply of workers and a slowdown from the previously frantic pace of hiring． Even so， the cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable． Job gains remain solid but have slowed this year.Job vacancies have fallen， and the ratio of vacancies to unemployment has returned to its pre-pandemic range． The hiring and quits rates are now below the levels that prevailed in 2018 and 2019． Nominal wage gains have moderated． All told， labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019—a year when inflation ran below 2 percent． It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon． We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions．
如今，劳能源阛阓已从之前的过热状态大幅降温。失业率在一年多前开动上升，面前为4.3%，以历史标准揣度仍然较低，但比2023岁首的水平向上快要整整一个百分点（图2）。其中大部分上升是在往时六个月中竣工的。到面前为止，失业率上升并不是裁人加多的成果，而裁人是经济衰败时代的典型情况。违反，这一增长主要反馈了工东谈主供给的大幅加多以及之前随便的招聘速率有所放缓。即便如斯，劳能源阛阓现象的降温是不消置疑的。管事增长保执端庄，但本年有所放缓。职位空白下落，职位空白与失业的比率已回到疫情前的水平。招聘率和下野率现在低于 2018年和2019年的水平。阵势工资增长有所放缓。一言以蔽之，现在的劳能源阛阓现象不如2019年疫情之前那么焦虑，那一年的通胀率低于2%。劳能源阛阓似乎不太可能在短期内成为通胀压力上升的根源。咱们不寻求或接待劳能源阛阓现象进一步降温。
Overall， the economy continues to grow at a solid pace． But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation． The upside risks to inflation have diminished． And the downside risks to employment have increased． As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement， we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate．
总体而言，经济赓续以端庄的速率增长。但通货扩展和劳能源阛阓数据娇傲，情况正在束缚变化。通胀的上行风险依然削弱。管事的下行风险也有所加多。正如咱们在上一次FOMC中强调的那样，咱们关注双重负务中的两方面风险。
The time has come for policy to adjust． The direction of travel is clear， and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data， the evolving outlook， and the balance of risks．
现在是政策退换的时候了。前进的方针是明确的，降息的时机和范例将取决于行将到来的数据、束缚变化的出息以及风险的均衡。
韩国主播We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability． With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint， there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market． The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face， including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions．
咱们将尽一切努力支柱矫捷的劳能源阛阓，同期在价钱相识方面勉力进一步进展。跟着政策经管的稳妥拘谨，咱们有充分的原理以为，经济将回到2%的通胀率，同期保执矫捷的劳能源阛阓。咱们面前的政策利率水平为咱们提供了足够的空间来移交可能靠近的任何风险，包括劳能源阛阓现象不受接待的进一步疲软的风险。
The Rise and Fall of Inflation 通胀的起落
Let‘s now turn to the questions of why inflation rose， and why it has fallen so significantly even as unemployment has remained low． There is a growing body of research on these questions， and this is a good time for this discussion.It is， of course， too soon to make definitive assessments． This period will be analyzed and debated long after we are gone．
现在让咱们来谈谈为什么通货扩展会上升，为什么在失业率保执低位的情况下通货扩展却大幅下落。对于这些问题的磋议越来越多，现在是究诘的好时机。天然，现在作念出明确的评估还为时过早。在咱们离开后很长一段本事，东谈主们仍将对这段时代进行分析和狡辩。
The arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic led quickly to shutdowns in economies around the world． It was a time of radical uncertainty and severe downside risks． As so often happens in times of crisis， Americans adapted and innovated． Governments responded with extraordinary force， especially in the U.S． Congress unanimously passed the CARES Act． At the Fed， we used our powers to an unprecedented extent to stabilize the financial system and help stave off an economic depression．
新冠疫情的爆发赶快导致人人经济停摆。这是一个充满不祥情味和严重下行风险的时代。正如危急时代时时发生的那样，好意思国东谈主适统一变嫌。列国政府作念出了超卓的恢复，尤其是好意思国国会一致通过了《存眷法案》。在好意思联储，咱们以前所未有的程度应用咱们的权利来相识金融体系并匡助幸免经济萧索。
After a historically deep but brief recession， in mid-2020 the economy began to grow again． As the risks of a severe， extended downturn receded， and as the economy reopened， we faced the risk of replaying the painfully slow recovery that followed the Global Financial Crisis．
在经历了历史上令东谈主长远但良晌的衰败之后，2020年年中，经济再次开动增长。跟着严重偏向下行的风险消退，以及经济再行怒放，咱们依然靠近着风险，可能会再次经历像人人金融危急之后那样平稳复苏的磨折。
Congress delivered substantial additional fiscal support in late 2020 and again in early 2021． Spending recovered strongly in the first half of 2021． The ongoing pandemic shaped the pattern of the recovery． Lingering concerns over COVID weighed on spending on in-person services． But pent-up demand， stimulative policies， pandemic changes in work and leisure practices， and the additional savings associated with constrained services spending all contributed to a historic surge in consumer spending on goods．
国会在 2020 年底和 2021 岁首提供了普遍稀奇的财政支柱。2021 年上半年，开销矫捷复苏。执续的疫情影响了复苏的模式。对新冠疫情的执续担忧拖累了面对面服务的开销。但被压抑的需求、刺激政策、疫情导致的作事和失业民俗的变化，以及与服务开销受限联系的稀奇储蓄，齐促使耗尽者在商品上的开销出现历史性激增。
The pandemic also wreaked havoc on supply conditions． Eight million people left the workforce at its onset， and the size of the labor force was still 4 million below its pre-pandemic level in early 2021． The labor force would not return to its pre-pandemic trend until mid-2023 （figure 3）．Supply chains were snarled by a combination of lost workers， disrupted international trade linkages， and tectonic shifts in the composition and level of demand （figure 4）． Clearly， this was nothing like the slow recovery after the Global Financial Crisis．
疫情还对供给端变成了严重碎裂。疫情开动时有 800 万东谈主离开了劳能源阛阓，劳能源数目仍比 2021 岁首疫情前的水平低 400 万东谈主。劳能源直到2023年年中才规复到疫情前的趋势（图3）。 工东谈主流失、海外营业磋议中断以及需求水平以及组成的结构性变化等要素使供应链堕入逆境（图4）。显然，这与人人金融危急后的平稳复苏齐全不同。
Enter inflation． After running below target through 2020， inflation spiked in March and April 2021． The initial burst of inflation was concentrated rather than broad based， with extremely large price increases for goods in short supply， such as motor vehicles． My colleagues and I judged at the outset that these pandemic-related factors would not be persistent and， thus， that the sudden rise in inflation was likely to pass through fairly quickly without the need for a monetary policy response—in short， that the inflation would be transitory． Standard thinking has long been that， as long as inflation expectations remain well anchored， it can be appropriate for central banks to look through a temporary rise in inflation．
通货扩伸开动理会。在 2020 年全年低于指标水平后，通货扩展在 2021 年 3 月和 4 月飙升。着手的通货扩展爆发是聚合的，而不是泛泛的，汽车等穷乏商品的价钱大幅高涨。我和我的共事一开动就判断，这些与疫情联系的要素不会执续，因此，通货扩展的已而上升很可能很快就会往时，而不需要货币政策移交——简而言之，通货扩展将是暂时的。永恒以来的标准想维是，只须通胀预期保执致密相识，央行就不错忽略通胀的暂时上升。
The good ship Transitory was a crowded one， with most mainstream analysts and advanced-economy central bankers on board.The common expectation was that supply conditions would improve reasonably quickly， that the rapid recovery in demand would run its course， and that demand would rotate back from goods to services， bringing inflation down．
“暂时性”这艘好船挤满了东谈主，大多数主流分析师和弘扬经济体央行行长齐支柱这一不雅点。他们普遍预期供应现象将赶快改善，需求的快速复苏将顺从其好意思，需求将从商品转向服务，从而裁减通胀率。
For a time， the data were consistent with the transitory hypothesis． Monthly readings for core inflation declined every month from April to September 2021， although progress came slower than expected （figure 5）． The case began to weaken around midyear， as was reflected in our communications． Beginning in October， the data turned hard against the transitory hypothesis.9 Inflation rose and broadened out from goods into services． It became clear that the high inflation was not transitory， and that it would require a strong policy response if inflation expectations were to remain well anchored． We recognized that and pivoted beginning in November． Financial conditions began to tighten． After phasing out our asset purchases， we lifted off in March 2022．
一段本事内，数据与暂时性假定相一致。2021 年 4 月至 9 月，中枢通胀的月度读数每月齐不才降，尽管进展慢于预期（图 5）。正如咱们的相通所反馈的那样，这种情况在年中掌握开动削弱。从 10 月开动，数据变得与暂时性假定以火去蛾中。9 通胀上升，并从商品扩展到服务。很彰着，高通胀不是暂时的，如果要保执通胀预期的致密相识，就需要强有劲的政策移交。咱们缔结到了这极少，并从 11 月开动蜿蜒。金融现象开动收紧。在渐渐取消钞票购买后，咱们于 2022 年 3 月开动加息。
By early 2022， headline inflation exceeded 6 percent， with core inflation above 5 percent． New supply shocks appeared． Russia‘s invasion of Ukraine led to a sharp increase in energy and commodity prices． The improvements in supply conditions and rotation in demand from goods to services were taking much longer than expected， in part due to further COVID waves in the U.S．
到2022岁首，总体通胀高出6%，中枢通胀高出5%。新的供给冲击出现。俄乌碎裂导致能源和巨额商品价钱大幅高涨。供给现象的改善和需求从商品转向服务的本事比预期的要长得多，部分原因是好意思国新一轮的新冠波涛。
High rates of inflation were a global phenomenon， reflecting common experiences： rapid increases in the demand for goods， strained supply chains， tight labor markets， and sharp hikes in commodity prices.12 The global nature of inflation was unlike any period since the 1970s． Back then， high inflation became entrenched—an outcome we were utterly committed to avoiding．
高通胀率是一种人人风景，反馈了共同的经历：商品需求赶快加多、供应链焦虑、劳能源阛阓焦虑以及巨额商品价钱大幅高涨。人人通胀的现实不同于上世纪70年代以来的任何时代。当时，高通胀依然树大根深——这是咱们尽全力幸免的成果。
By mid-2022， the labor market was extremely tight， with employment increasing by over 6-1/2 million from the middle of 2021． This increase in labor demand was met， in part， by workers rejoining the labor force as health concerns began to fade． But labor supply remained constrained， and， in the summer of 2022， labor force participation remained well below pre-pandemic levels． There were nearly twice as many job openings as unemployed persons from March 2022 through the end of the year， signaling a severe labor shortage （figure 6）．Inflation peaked at 7.1 percent in June 2022．
2022年年中，劳能源阛阓相称焦虑，管事东谈主数比2021年年中加多了650万以上。劳能源需求的加多在一定程度上是通过工东谈主再行加入劳能源阛阓来竣工的，因为东谈主们对健康的担忧开动消退。但劳能源供给仍然受到限制，2022年夏天的劳能源参与率仍远低于疫情前的水平。从2022年3月到年底，职位空白数险些是失业东谈主数的两倍，标明劳能源严重穷乏（图6）。通胀在2022年6月达到7.1%的峰值。
At this podium two years ago， I discussed the possibility that addressing inflation could bring some pain in the form of higher unemployment and slower growth． Some argued that getting inflation under control would require a recession and a lengthy period of high unemployment． I expressed our unconditional commitment to fully restoring price stability and to keeping at it until the job is done．
两年前，我曾在这个讲台上究诘过，措置通货扩展问题可能会带来失业率上升和经济增长放缓等一些磨折。有东谈主以为，适度通货扩展需要经济衰败和永恒的高失业率。我抒发了咱们无条件的甘心，即全面规复价钱相识，并坚执下去，直到任务完成。
The FOMC did not flinch from carrying out our responsibilities， and our actions forcefully demonstrated our commitment to restoring price stability． We raised our policy rate by 425 basis points in 2022 and another 100 basis points in 2023． We have held our policy rate at its current restrictive level since July 2023 （figure 7）．
FOMC在实行牵累方面莫得腐败，咱们的动作有劲地标明了咱们对规复价钱相识的决心。咱们在2022年将政策利率上调了425bp，并在2023年再次上调 100bp。自2023年7月以来，咱们一直将政策利率保管在面前的限制性水平（图7）。
The summer of 2022 proved to be the peak of inflation． The 4-1/2 percentage point decline in inflation from its peak two years ago has occurred in a context of low unemployment—a welcome and historically unusual result．
通胀在2022 年夏令达到峰值。在低失业率的布景下，通胀从两年前的峰值下落了4.5%，这是一个可喜且历史萧索的成果。
How did inflation fall without a sharp rise in unemployment above its estimated natural rate？
奈何达到通胀下落而失业率莫得急剧上升到高出推断的天然失业率的？
Pandemic-related distortions to supply and demand， as well as severe shocks to energy and commodity markets， were important drivers of high inflation， and their reversal has been a key part of the story of its decline． The unwinding of these factors took much longer than expected but ultimately played a large role in the subsequent disinflation． Our restrictive monetary policy contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand， which combined with improvements in aggregate supply to reduce inflationary pressures while allowing growth to continue at a healthy pace． As labor demand also moderated， the historically high level of vacancies relative to unemployment has normalized primarily through a decline in vacancies， without sizable and disruptive layoffs， bringing the labor market to a state where it is no longer a source of inflationary pressures．
疫情联系的供需诬告以及对能源和巨额商品阛阓的严重冲击，是高通胀的病笃驱动要素，而它们的逆转是通胀下落的关键部分。这些要素的摒除破耗的本事比预期要长得多，但最终在随后的去通胀中阐扬了病笃作用。限制性货币政策导致总需求放缓，这与总供给的改善相蚁合，减轻了通胀压力，同期赓续保执良性增长。跟着劳能源需求也有所放缓，职位空白率/失业率依然从历史高位规复正常，主若是通过职位空白的下落，而非大规模和碎裂性的裁人，使得劳能源阛阓不再是通胀压力的来源。
A word on the critical importance of inflation expectations． Standard economic models have long reflected the view that inflation will return to its objective when product and labor markets are balanced—without the need for economic slack—so long as inflation expectations are anchored at our objective． That‘s what the models said， but the stability of longer-run inflation expectations since the 2000s had not been tested by a persistent burst of high inflation． It was far from assured that the inflation anchor would hold． Concerns over de-anchoring contributed to the view that disinflation would require slack in the economy and specifically in the labor market． An important takeaway from recent experience is that anchored inflation expectations， reinforced by vigorous central bank actions， can facilitate disinflation without the need for slack．
对于通胀预期的病笃性。永恒以来，标准经济模子一直反馈出这样一种不雅点，即只须通胀预期锚定在咱们的指标上，当居品和劳能源阛阓达到均衡时，通胀就会回到其指标，而不会带来经济大略。模子是这样说的，但自2000年代以来永恒通胀预期的相识性并莫得继承过执续高通胀的覆按。通胀能否执续锚定还远不行得以保险。对脱锚的担忧促成了一种不雅点，即去通胀将需要经济（尤其是劳能源阛阓）的大略。从最近的阅历中得出的一个病笃论断是，锚定的通胀预期，加上央行的有劲动作，不错促进去通胀，经济大略并不是必须的。
This narrative attributes much of the increase in inflation to an extraordinary collision between overheated and temporarily distorted demand and constrained supply． While researchers differ in their approaches and， to some extent， in their conclusions， a consensus seems to be emerging， which I see as attributing most of the rise in inflation to this collision.All told， the healing from pandemic distortions， our efforts to moderate aggregate demand， and the anchoring of expectations have worked together to put inflation on what increasingly appears to be a sustainable path to our 2 percent objective．
这种说法将通胀上升主要懊恼于（经济）过热以及暂时诬告的需求与受限的供给之间的超卓碰撞。尽管磋议东谈主员在要领上各不相通，在某种程度上他们的论断上也各不相通，但似乎正在形成一种共鸣，在我看来便是通胀上升的大部分原因应懊恼于这场碰撞。一言以蔽之，咱们从疫情的诬告中规复了过来，咱们为松驰总需求所作念的努力蚁合对预期的锚定，共同使通胀走上了一条日益竣工2%指标的可执续谈路。
Disinflation while preserving labor market strength is only possible with anchored inflation expectations， which reflect the public‘s confidence that the central bank will bring about 2 percent inflation over time． That confidence has been built over decades and reinforced by our actions．
只须在锚定通胀预期的情况下才有可能在保执劳能源阛阓矫捷的同期竣工去通胀，这反馈了公众有信心央行将缓缓达到2%掌握的通胀指标。这种信心是往时几十年来设置起来的，何况通过咱们的动作得以加强。
That is my assessment of events． Your mileage may vary．
这是我对事件的评估。可能因东谈主而异。
Conclusion 论断
Let me wrap up by emphasizing that the pandemic economy has proved to be unlike any other， and that there remains much to be learned from this extraordinary period． Our Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy emphasizes our commitment to reviewing our principles and making appropriate adjustments through a thorough public review every five years． As we begin this process later this year， we will be open to criticism and new ideas， while preserving the strengths of our framework． The limits of our knowledge—so clearly evident during the pandemic—demand humility and a questioning spirit focused on learning lessons from the past and applying them flexibly to our current challenges．
临了，我想强调的是，事实解说，疫情经济与其他任何经济齐不同，从这一非常时代中咱们仍有很多东西需要学习。咱们的《永恒指标和货币政策政策声明》强调，咱们极力于于每五年通过一次全面的公开审查来审查咱们的原则并作念出稳妥退换。当咱们在本年晚些时候开动这一程度时，咱们将对品评和新想法执怒放气派，同期保执咱们框架的上风。咱们学问的局限性——在疫情本事了然于目——要求咱们保执良善和质疑精神，专注于从往时吸取训戒并天真地将其应用于咱们现时的挑战。
注：鲍威尔话语稿原文详见好意思联储官网，华尔街见闻略有删省。
风险指示及免责条件
阛阓有风险，投资需严慎。本文不组成个东谈主投资苛刻，也未计议到个别用户非常的投资指标、财务现象或需要。用户应试虑本文中的任何办法、不雅点或论断是否相宜其特定现象。据此投资，牵累快意。
海量资讯、精确解读，尽在新浪财经APP
牵累剪辑：于健 SF069耳光 调教